課程資訊
課程名稱
 成本效益分析
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS 
開課學期
 96-1 
授課對象
 社會科學院  公共行政組  
授課教師
 江瑞祥 
課號
 PS4302 
課程識別碼
 302 44600 
班次
  
學分
 2 
全/半年
 半年 
必/選修
 必帶 
上課時間
 星期四3,4(10:20~12:10) 
上課地點
 社法9 
備註
 總人數上限：60人
外系人數限制：10人 
Ceiba 課程網頁
 http://ceiba.ntu.edu.tw/961BCA30244600 
課程簡介影片
 
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課程大綱
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課程概述

本課程將以公部門如何進行計畫評估為主要授課內容，並輔以私部門之計畫評估，以因應私部門日漸參與公共服務計畫之評估需求。課程將依計畫參數確定性與否的假設，區分兩大授課內容。其一為確定下之成本效益分析，探討之評估方法將以折現後現金流量分析法為主；其二為不確定性下之成本效益分析，探討之評估方法將以決策分析與實體選擇權分析為主。擬探討之課題涵括成本與效益之定義、社會折現率、成本有效性、風險報酬率、加權平均資金成本、資本資產定價模式、多因子定價模式、機率性風險評估、選擇權評價模式等。討論之主體對象涵括運輸、電信、電力、水利、遊憩區、工業區、科學園區、運動場、展覽會場及各項公共服務等計畫。 

課程目標
 The syllabus consists of 2 major blocks covering 4 interlocking topics.
Part I. Covers the elements of project evaluation in the context of certainty:
- Evaluation techniques for projects that exist more than 3 to 5 years. These feature the discounted cash flow analyses essential for any realistic assessment of significant public projects.
- Concepts for correctly modeling technically and economically efficient performance of projects. These derive from the economic notions of production and cost functions. These theoretical functions lose important technical realities, however, and need to be replaced by technical cost models derived from a deep understanding of the technical details of the project.
Part 2. Presents the techniques for analyzing projects in the context of uncertainty. These are:
- Decision and utility analysis. These two methods provide a coherent basis for determining the optimal value of possible choices in the design and management of a project and, thus, for determining an optimal choice. However, they do deal effectively with evaluation over time, because they do not support a way to do a discounted cash flow that properly accounts for changing patterns of risk.
- Real Options analysis, an integrated approach that not only properly deals appropriately with evaluation over time in risky situations but also pinpoints the value of specific project design elements. It thus gives decision-makers and planners the means to decide what kinds of flexibility to build into a project, and when to exercise these options. With sufficient data, real options analysis directly calculates the value of flexible choices. More generally, as demonstrated theoretically and by example applications, real options analysis of public projects requires approximate methods.
 
課程要求
 There will be four to six problems (which will count for about 30% of the course’s grade; graduate students will expect to take additional case studies to count for their final grades) and two quizzes (total about 70% of the grade). If you first make an effort to think things for yourself, I will be glad to help you with homework before it is due.  
預期每週課後學習時數
  
Office Hours
 每週四 12:10~13:10
每週五 12:10~13:10 備註： 可以電子郵件另約時間。 
指定閱讀
  
參考書目
 No textbook is required for this subject. A large number
of textbooks cover each of the three main topics (cost and
benefit analysis, decision analysis, and real option
analtsis), but none, to my knowledge, covers all three.
While you may wish to purchase one or more of these books
for future reference, you do not really need any for the
class itself, as the materials that will be posted or
distributed will be sufficient. However, four textbooks at
the order of its importance to this course (even all are
optional for the interested reader) are recommended below.
The first two textbooks are reserved at the Law and Social
Science Library.
1. Campbell, H. F. and R. P. C. Browan, 2003,
Benefit-Cost Analysis: Financial and Economic Appraisal
using Spreadsheets, Cambridge University Press
2. Boardman, A. E., D. H. Greenberg, A. R. Vining,
and D. L. Weimer, 2006, Cost-Benefit Analysis: Concepts
and Practice, Prentice Hall
3. Bertsimas, D., and R. M. Freund, 2000, Data,
Models, and Decisions: The Fundamental of Management
Science, South-Western College Publishing, Cincinnati, OH.
4. Trigeorgis, L, 2000, Real Options: Managerial
Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation, MIT Press
5. 郭昱瑩，2007，成本效益分析，華泰文化出版
6. 丁致成，1997，城市多贏策略：都市計畫與公共利益，創
興出版社。
 
評量方式
(僅供參考)
  
No.
項目
百分比
說明
1. 
 MID-TERM 
35% 
  
2. 
 FINAL 
35% 
  
3. 
 ASSIGNMENTS 
30% 
  
 
課程進度
週次
日期
單元主題
Week 1
 9/20  Introduction: Background and Fundamental Premises 
Week 2
 9/27  Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA): Economic Evaluation Techniques 
Week 3
 10/04  CBA: Measures of Effectiveness and Capital Budgeting 
Week 4
 10/11  CBA: Price Inflation; Cost Changes; Unequal Lifetimes 
Week 5
 10/18  CBA: Presence of Uncertainty and Risk; Possibility of Catastrophic Failure 
Week 6
 10/25  CBA: Evaluation over Time; Discount Rates for Private and Public Sector; Capital Asset Pricing Model 
Week 7
 11/01  CBA: Value of Goods or Services with No Readily Available Market Prices; Variations on CBA Approach 
Week 8
 11/08  Review of Probability 
Week 9
 11/15  Decision Analysis (DA): Background, Decision Trees; the Value of Information 
Week 10
 11/22  DA: the Axioms of DA; the Concept of Utility; Decision Using Utilities; Typical Utility Functions 
Week 11
 11/29  No Class 
Week 12
 12/06  Quiz 1 
Week 13
 12/13  Real Options Analysis (ROA): Basic Concepts and Option Valuation 
Week 14
 12/20  ROA: Real Options; Valuation of Financial Options 
Week 15
 12/27  ROA: Valuation by Simulation 
Week 16
 1/03  Un-priced Value Evaluation 
Week 17
 1/10  Transaction Cost Approach; Course Wrap Up